Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 1.373450 1.443139 1.515288 1.595733 1.683131 1.775437 1.880598
2025-11-02 1.262566 1.360462 1.465982 1.588823 1.728730 1.884119 2.071174
2025-11-09 1.181245 1.293405 1.417483 1.566111 1.740908 1.942012 2.193965
2025-11-16 1.117607 1.238980 1.375999 1.543890 1.746544 1.986607 2.297759
2025-11-23 1.076150 1.206062 1.355372 1.542082 1.772866 2.053786 2.429868
2025-11-30 1.046806 1.184787 1.345983 1.551383 1.810994 2.135329 2.583494
2025-12-07 1.007472 1.149124 1.316759 1.533601 1.812673 2.168868 2.674327
2025-12-14 0.967020 1.110065 1.281173 1.505317 1.798244 2.179074 2.732214
2025-12-21 0.936719 1.082017 1.257656 1.490624 1.799784 2.209277 2.818451
2025-12-28 0.921871 1.072283 1.256251 1.503721 1.837908 2.290178 2.982179
2026-01-04 0.901224 1.054338 1.243455 1.500885 1.853731 2.340210 3.103189
2026-01-11 0.889579 1.047200 1.243956 1.515264 1.893274 2.425363 3.283644
2026-01-18 0.870801 1.030819 1.232480 1.513832 1.911769 2.482808 3.428741
2026-01-25 0.851641 1.013329 1.218901 1.508862 1.924821 2.532797 3.566256
2026-02-01 0.827426 0.988442 1.194568 1.487811 1.913200 2.544144 3.639320
2026-02-08 0.804851 0.965025 1.171386 1.467320 1.901149 2.553640 3.709278
2026-02-15 0.790653 0.952206 1.161945 1.465650 1.916618 2.606639 3.859962
2026-02-22 0.781025 0.945108 1.159906 1.474233 1.947598 2.685854 4.065630
2026-03-01 0.762963 0.926207 1.141102 1.457822 1.939394 2.700395 4.151396
2026-03-08 0.742331 0.903357 1.116235 1.431700 1.914926 2.686380 4.180586
2026-03-15 0.726972 0.887283 1.100315 1.418122 1.909377 2.703621 4.272499
2026-03-22 0.721051 0.883852 1.101833 1.430226 1.944715 2.792386 4.517564
2026-03-29 0.710512 0.873817 1.093749 1.427605 1.956172 2.840121 4.682839